LynnBlakeGolf Forums - View Single Post - Fun Probability problem Thread: Fun Probability problem View Single Post #9 02-20-2007, 12:57 PM EdZ Lynn Blake Certified Instructor Join Date: Jan 2005 Location: West Linn, OR Posts: 1,645 Mathew, I think you are not seeing the difference between a pattern and an event. The probability of a particular pattern can depend on previous events, the probability of a single event does not. Any single coin toss is 50/50, all day, every day. A choice between 2 doors is 50/50, all day, every day. To answer your initial post - is it in your interest to switch - what are your odds of picking correctly? 50/50. You assume a pattern (event A may/does alter event B), when in this example, there is no relationship between event A and B that justifies viewing it as such, absent any other data. The 'feel vs real' of statistics. __________________ "Support the On Plane Swinging Force in Balance" "we have no friends, we have no enemies, we have only teachers" Simplicity buffs, see 5-0, 1-L, 2-0 A and B 10-2-B, 4-D, 6B-1D, 6-B-3-0-1, 6-C-1, 6-E-2 EdZ View Public Profile Send a private message to EdZ Find all posts by EdZ